NOAA activates GOES-15 satellite; deactivates GOES-11 after nearly 12 years in orbit December 6, 2011
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December 6, 2011
On Dec. 6, 2011 at 1545z, GOES-15 took its first infrared image as the operational geostationary satellite positioned over the Pacific – called GOES-West. This image shows a portion of that first image. The clouds are colorized based on their temperature, an indication of storm intensity. GOES-15 will continue to image the Western U.S. and Pacific every 15-30 minutes, with full hemisphere scans every 3 hours until its retirement – hopefully many years from now.
Download here. (Credit: NOAA)
For 12 years, GOES-11, one of NOAA’s geostationary satellites, tracked weather and severe storms that impacted the U.S. West Coast, Hawaii and the Pacific region. Today, NOAA began the process to deactivate the satellite, which is approaching the end of its useful life, and replace it with a new, more advanced spacecraft.
The new geostationary satellite, GOES-15, has taken the place of GOES-11 and now becomes NOAA’s GOES West spacecraft in a fixed orbit over the Pacific Ocean, midway between Hawaii and the West Coast and 22,300 miles above the equator. GOES-15 provides more data, with better resolution and image stability than GOES-11. GOES-15 joins NOAA’s other operational geostationary satellite, GOES-13, which serves as the GOES East spacecraft. The GOES are not only used for weather applications, but also track space weather, oceanographic changes, forest fires and other hazards and provide scientific data collection and information for search and rescue operations.
Aware that GOES-11 was nearing the end of its fuel supply, NOAA personnel spent the past several months planning for the end of its mission. Deactivation of GOES-11 began today when data observations were shifted to GOES-15. On December 15, NOAA will fire the spacecraft’s booster, moving GOES-11 approximately 185 miles (300 km) above its current geostationary orbit, where it will be officially decommissioned.
“With its steady eye on dangerous weather conditions, GOES-11 served America well, providing the critical images and atmospheric measurements NOAA meteorologists needed to produce life-saving forecasts,” said Mary Kicza, assistant administrator for NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service.
GOES-15 took its first operational full disk images at 1800z on Dec. 6, 2011. The image above was captured in native grayscale infrared. GOES-15′s water vapor channel has major improvements over its predecessor on GOES-11 (the previous GOES-West).
Download here. (Credit: NOAA)
Launched May 3, 2000, GOES-11 was originally planned for a five-year mission, but lasted nearly seven years longer. “GOES-11’s extended service is testimony to the great work of Space Systems/Loral, NASA and the team of NOAA staff and contractors who acquired and managed the spacecraft ,” Kicza added.
In addition to GOES-15 and GOES-13, NOAA has two other geostationary satellites in orbit – GOES-12, which provides data for South America, and GOES-14, which is in a storage orbit as a ready backup or replacement.
NOAA is planning the next generation of geostationary satellites, called GOES-R, with the first set to launch in 2015. GOES-R is expected to more than double the clarity of today’s GOES imagery and provide more atmospheric observations than current capabilities with more frequent images. In addition, data from GOES-R instruments will be used to create many different products NOAA meteorologists and others will use to monitor the atmosphere, land, ocean and the sun.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.
NOAA – 2nd Warmest Summer on Record September 19, 2011
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U.S. experiences second warmest summer on record
Texas has warmest summer on record of any state
September 8, 2011
Each dot represents a day where temperatures met or
exceeded 100 degrees.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
The blistering heat experienced by the nation during August, as well as the June through August months, marks the second warmest summer on record according to scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, N.C. The persistent heat, combined with below-average precipitation across the southern U.S. during August and the three summer months, continued a record-breaking drought across the region.
The average U.S. temperature in August was 75.7 degrees F, which is 3.0 degrees above the long-term (1901-2000) average, while the summertime temperature was 74.5 degrees F, which is 2.4 degrees above average. The warmest August on record for the contiguous United States was 75.8 degrees F in 1983, while its warmest summer on record at 74.6 degrees F occurred in 1936. Precipitation across the nation during August averaged 2.31 inches, 0.29 inches below the long-term average. The nationwide summer precipitation was 1.0 inch below average.
This monthly analysis, based on records dating back to 1895, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.
U.S. climate highlights – August
- Excessive heat in six states – Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana – resulted in their warmest August on record. This year ranked in the top ten warmest August for five other states: Florida (3rd), Georgia (4th), Utah (5th), Wyoming (8th), and South Carolina (9th).The Southwest and South also had their warmest August on record.
- Only nine of the lower 48 states experienced August temperatures near average, and no state had August average temperatures below average.
- Wetter-than-normal conditions were widespread across the Northeastern United States, which had its second wettest August, as well as parts of the Northern Plains and California. Drier-than-normal conditions reigned across the interior West, the Midwest, and the South.
- Hurricane Irene made landfall near Cape Lookout, N.C. as a Category 1 storm on August 27, marking the first hurricane landfall in the U.S. since Hurricane Ike in September 2008. Irene made a second landfall in New Jersey as a hurricane on August 28, marking only the second recorded hurricane landfall in that state.
- Irene contributed to New Jersey, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire having their wettest August on record. Meanwhile, Massachusetts (2nd), Connecticut (2nd), Delaware (3rd), Maine (3rd), Maryland (5th), Pennsylvania (5th), and Rhode Island (9th) had a top 10 wet August.
- Several major U.S. cities broke all-time monthly rainfall amounts during August. New York City (Central Park) measured 18.95 inches of rain, exceeding the previous record of 16.85 inches in 1882. In Philadelphia, 19.31 inches of rain was observed, besting the previous monthly record of 13.07 inches in September 1999.
- Louisiana (3rd), Tennessee (4th), Texas (5th), Mississippi (6th), Georgia, (6th), Illinois (8th), Washington (9th), and Alabama (9th) had precipitation totals among their top ten driest on record.
- Despite record rainfall in parts of the country, drought covered about one-third of the contiguous United States, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index indicated that parts of Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas are experiencing drought of greater intensity, but not yet duration, than those of the 1930s and 1950s. Drought intensity refers to the rate at which surface and ground water is lost, due to a combination of several factors, including evaporation and lack of precipitation.
- An analysis of Texas statewide tree-ring records dating back to 1550 indicates that the summer 2011 drought in Texas is matched by only one summer (1789), indicating that the summer 2011 drought appears to be unusual even in the context of the multi-century tree-ring record.
U.S. climate highlights – Summer
- Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Louisiana had their warmest (June-August) summers on record. Average summer temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma, at 86.8 degrees F and 86.5 degrees F, respectively, exceeded the previous seasonal statewide average temperature record for any state during any season. The previous warmest summer statewide average temperature was in Oklahoma, during 1934 at 85.2 degrees F.
- Fifteen states had a summer average temperature ranking among their top ten warmest. West of the Rockies, a persistent trough brought below-average temperatures to the Pacific Northwest, where Washington and Oregon were the only states across the lower 48 to have below-average summer temperatures.
- Texas had its driest summer on record, with a statewide average of 2.44 inches of rain. This is 5.29 inches below the long-term average, and 1.04 inches less than the previous driest summer in 1956. New Mexico had its second driest summer and Oklahoma its third driest summer. New Jersey and California had their wettest summers on record with 22.50 inches and 1.93 inches, respectively.
- The U.S. Climate Extremes Index, a measure of the percent area of the country experiencing extreme climate conditions, was nearly four times the average value was during summer 2011. This is the third largest summer value of the record, which dates to 1910. The major drivers were extremes in warm minimum and maximum temperatures and in the wet and dry tails of the Palmer Drought Severity Index.
- Based on NOAA’s Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index, the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand was 22.3 percent above average during summer. This is the largest such value during the index’s period of record, which dates to 1895.
Other U.S. climate highlights
- During the six-month period (March-August), much-above-average temperatures dominated the southern and eastern United States. New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Florida, all experienced their warmest March-August on record. Cooler-than-average temperatures dominated the West and Northwest.
- For the year-to-date period, the average statewide temperature for Texas was 69.9 degrees F, the warmest such period on record for the state. This bests the previous record for the year-to-date period of 69.8 degrees F in 2000.
- For precipitation year-to-date, New Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana have all had their driest January-August periods on record, while Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut were record wet during the same period.
NCDC’s monthly reports are based on preliminary data, which are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and as new scientific methods improve NCDC’s processing algorithms.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.
NOAA has new 30 averages July 9, 2011
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Average U.S. temperature increases by 0.5 degrees F
New 1981-2010 ‘normals’ to be released this week
June 29, 2011
Statewide changes in annual “normal temperatures” (1981 – 2010 compared to 1971 – 2000).
Download here. (Credit: NOAA)
According to the 1981-2010 normals to be released by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on July 1, temperatures across the United States were on average, approximately 0.5 degree F warmer than the 1971-2000 time period.
Normals serve as a 30 year baseline average of important climate variables that are used to understand average climate conditions at any location and serve as a consistent point of reference. The new normals update the 30-year averages of climatological variables, including average temperature and precipitation for more than 7,500 locations across the United States. This once-a-decade update will replace the current 1971–2000 normals.
In the continental United States, every state’s annual maximum and minimum temperature increased on average. “The climate of the 2000s is about 1.5 degree F warmer than the 1970s, so we would expect the updated 30-year normals to be warmer,” said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., NCDC director.
Using standards established by the World Meteorological Organization, the 30-year normals are used to compare current climate conditions with recent history. Local weathercasters traditionally use normals for comparisons with the day’s weather conditions.
In addition to their application in the weather sector, normals are used extensively by electric and gas companies for short- and long-term energy use projections. NOAA’s normals are also used by some states as the standard benchmark by which they determine the statewide rate that utilities are allowed to charge their customers.
The agricultural sector also heavily depends on normals. Farmers rely on normals to help make decisions on both crop selection and planting times. Agribusinesses use normals to monitor “departures from normal conditions” throughout the growing season and to assess past and current crop yields.
NCDC made many improvements and additions to the scientific methodology used to calculate the 1981-2010 normals. They include improved scientific quality control and statistical techniques. Comparisons to previous normals take these new techniques into account. The 1981-2010 normals provide a more comprehensive suite of precipitation and snowfall statistics. In addition, NCDC is providing hourly normals for more than 250 stations at the request of users, such as the energy industry.
Some of the key climate normals include: monthly and daily maximum temperature; monthly and daily minimum temperature; daily and monthly precipitation and snowfall statistics; and daily and monthly heating and cooling degree days. The 1981-2010 climate normals is one of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions. NOAA and its predecessor agencies have been providing updated 30-year normals once every decade since the 1921-1950 normals were released in 1956.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.
River Flooding Likely Soon May 3, 2011
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There is a lot of data pointing to the likelihood of snowmelt flooding coming to SW Montana between mid May and Mid June.
First look at the snow pack data and the snow/water % of average data:
All the river basins below show above normal snowpack trends with a sharp increase throughout the month of April and many of our local snow/water % of average values are 135% to 150% of average or 35% to 50% above the 30 year mean.
Gallatin River Basin Snow Data
Madison River Basin Snowpack
Upper Yellowstone River Basin Snow Data
- Upper Clark Fork Snow Data
Jefferson (Big Hole-Beaverhead-Ruby) Snow DataMadison River Basin Snow DataGallatin River Basin Snow Data
March Weather Recap For SW Montana April 3, 2011
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March was another month with mostly below average temperatures and above normal mountain snowpack.
Valley precipitation values were mostly below normal.
One of the most interesting contrasts in the data is between Gallatin Field and Bozeman MSU.
Gallatin Field: Avg. Temperature 34.7 and that is +1.9 degrees. Warmest High 59 on the 31st, coldest low 12 degrees on the 20th. Precipitation .82″ and that is below normal by -.20″
MSU-Bozeman: Avg. Temperature 35.4 and that was above normal by +.3 degrees. Warmest high 54 on the 31st, coldest low 10 degrees on the 7th. Precipitation 1.16″ which is below normal by -.24″
Butte: Avg Temperature 37.2 degrees or below normal -.4 degrees. Warmest high 60 on the 31st, coldest low 19 on the 12th. Precipitation .80″ or below normal by -.16″.
Anaconda: Avg. Temperature 34.2 degrees or below normal by -.2 degrees. Warmest high 55 on the 31st, coldest low 13 on the 23rd. Precipitation 1.29″ and that was above normal by +.25″.
Boulder: Avg. Temperature 34.8 degrees or +1.5 degrees above normal. Warmest high 54 degrees on the 30th & 31st, coldest low 16 degrees on the 4th. Precipitation only .17″ and that is below normal by -.35″.
Ennis: Avg. Temperature 35.3 degrees or -.5 degrees below normal. Warmest high 56 degrees on the 31st, coldest low 15 degrees on the 20th. Precipitation .83″ or below normal by only -.04″
Townsend: Avg. Temperature 36.4 degrees or -.9 below normal. Warmest high 61 degrees on the 10th, coldest low 24 degrees on the 1st. Precipitation .38″ and that was -.16″ below normal.
April Forecast is calling for more of the same with La Nina weakening but continuing to produce in general cooler than normal and wetter than normal conditions for Montana.
April Precipitation Outlook
BLIND SPOT – RADAR GAP – MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING March 28, 2011
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On KBZK/KXLF TV we show you and discuss the radar gap frequently and is one of the most frustrating aspects about predicting weather here in SW Montana.
A classic example occurred this morning between Butte and Bozeman. On radar absolutely NOTHING is shown to emphasize the intensity of the snow. Here is a picture of the NWS radar and a close up radar shot from the Storm Tracker Weather computer.
NWS Radar at 8:30am March 28, 2011
STORMTRACKER Doppler Radar at 8:15am March 28, 2011
Ok, now look at web cam pictures from the ICAM network and MDOT network over the mountain passes.
Bozeman ICAM March 28th, 2011
MDOT Bozeman Pass 8:30am March 28, 2011
My backyard, up to 3″ of snow in most areas I measured and a few 4″ measurements as well.
Distance between radar sites is great. Billings NWS to Great Falls NWS to Missoula NWS to Pocatello, ID NWS are the 4 nexrad 88D radar sites that cover SW Montana. The problem is the vast distance. As a radar beam travels away from it’s origin the higher and higher the beam travels. The other hurtle is the numerous mountain ranges that block the lowest radar beams.
So what do we use to offset this radar gap, satellite imagery and surface observations with the numerous web cameras.
Enhanced Infra Red Satellite Image
Analyzing the above infra red satellite image you can see a very small area of red and pink over northern Gallatin County. The colors tell us that the cloud tops are rather high and the thus there is more moisture within that region. I find it amazing that such a small wave of moisture can dump that much moisture.
I measured 3″ to 4″ of snow around 8:30am this morning on my deck.
April Forecast – Temperature & Precipitation for NW March 23, 2011
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April Temperature Outlook
CPC April Precipitation Forecast
A weakening La Nina continues to impact the weather patterns across the western US through March with cooler and wetter than normal conditions for most areas in Montana.
Hardest hit regions in the state are the far northern half of Montana with above normal snowpack at all levels and a serious threat of flooding once all that snow melts up north.
Typically, in a normal season, snowpack will continue to accumulate up to about April 15th and thereafter the accumulation to melting ratio’s start to favor more melting than accumulating. Looking at the Climate Predicition Center long range forecast for April (graphics above) we are likely to see more of the same, below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation across Montana. There is a 40% to 50% chance that average temperatures for April will be below normal and a 30% to 40% chance that we will experience above normal precipitation.
February Ranked 17th Warmest on Record March 15, 2011
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February Ranked 17th Warmest on Record
March 15, 2011
This year, the globe experienced the 17th warmest February since record keeping began in 1880, as the climate phenomenon La Niña continued to be a significant factor. Last month’s average Arctic sea ice extent tied with 2005 as the smallest extent for February in its 32-year period of record.
The monthly analysis from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions.
Global Temperature Highlights – February
- The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for February 2011 was the 17th warmest on record at 54.62 F (12.50 C), which is 0.72 F (0.40 C) above the 20th century average of 53.9 F (12.1 C). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/- 0.18 F (0.10 C).
- Separately, the global land surface temperature was 0.92 F (0.51 C) above the 20th century average of 37.8 F (3.2 C), which tied for the 28th warmest February on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.56 F (0.31 C). Warmer-than-average conditions occurred across most of Asia, central Africa, northern Alaska and southern Greenland. Cooler-than-average regions included Eastern Europe, western Russia, eastern Siberia and the western United States.
- The February global ocean surface temperature was 0.65 F (0.36 C) above the 20th century average of 60.6 F (15.9 C), making it the 10th warmest February on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.13 F (0.07 C). The warmth was most pronounced across the northern Pacific Ocean, the tropical Atlantic Ocean and part of the North Atlantic near Greenland and Canada.
Global Temperature Highlights – December 2010 – February 2011
- The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for Northern Hemisphere winter (December 2010 – February 2011) was 0.70 F (0.39 C) above the 20th century average of 53.8 F (12.1 C), making it the 16th warmest on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.16 F (0.09 C).
- The December 2010 – February 2011 worldwide land surface temperature was 0.81 F (0.45 C) above the 20th century average of 37.8 F (3.2 C) — the 26th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.32 F (0.18 C). Warmer-than-average conditions were particularly felt across eastern Canada, southern Greenland and northern Siberia. Cooler-than-average regions included Eastern Europe, western Russia and Mongolia.
- The global ocean surface temperature for December 2010 – February 2011 was 0.65 F (0.36 C) above the 20th century average of 60.5 F (15.8 C) and tied for the 10th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/-0.13 F (0.07 C). The warmth was most pronounced across the northern Pacific Ocean, the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and the North Atlantic, near Greenland and Canada.
- La Niña conditions weakened in February, although sea-surface temperatures remained below normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, La Niña will continue to have global impacts for the next several months, but neither La Niña nor El Niño are expected to affect the region by June.
Polar Sea Ice and Precipitation Highlights
- The average Arctic sea ice extent for February was 5.54 million square miles (14.36 million square km), which is 8.2 percent below average. This ties with February 2005 as the smallest February Arctic sea ice extent since records began in 1979 and is the third consecutive month with record low Arctic ice extent.
- For the winter period, the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent over land averaged 760,000 square miles (1.98 million square km) above average, ranking as the third largest seasonal snow cover extent on record behind the winters of 1977–1978 and 2009–2010. The North American season snow cover extent was the third largest on record, while Eurasia’s was fourth largest.
- Average rainfall across Australia was 76 percent above average during February, making it the second wettest February on record behind 2000. Rainfall in South Australia was more than four times above average, the wettest February on record for the state. The summer period (December 2010 – February 2011) was the second wettest summer on record for Australia.
Scientists, researchers and leaders in government and industry use NOAA’s monthly reports to help track trends and other changes in the world’s climate. This climate service has a wide range of practical uses, from helping farmers know what and when to plant, to guiding resource managers with critical decisions about water, energy and other vital assets.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook.
* Included in this report: Based on requests from our users, NOAA is now making it easier to find information in its global State of the Climate report about margins of error associated with its global temperature calculations. NCDC previously displayed this information in certain graphics associated with the report, but it will now publish these ranges in the form of “plus or minus” values associated with each monthly temperature calculation. These values are calculated using techniques published in peer-reviewed scientific literature. More information.
Japan Earthquake and Tsunami March 11, 2011
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBZGH3yieLc
http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/cbsnews_player_embed.swf
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK March 10, 2011
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GUS75 KTFX 102231
ESFTFX
092231-
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
331 PM MST THU MAR 10 2011
…MONTANA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK AS OF MARCH 2011…
MONTANA WATER SUPPLY FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS IN COOPERATION AND COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MISSOULA AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE…USDA.
THE WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR THE 2011 SUMMER SEASON PROJECTS WATER SUPPLIES EAST AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE. THESE FORECASTS ASSUME NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE AND RUNOFF CONDITIONS FOR MARCH THROUGH JULY AND DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR MUCH BELOW AVERAGE…70 PERCENT OR LESS…OR ABOVE AVERAGE…110 PERCENT OR MORE…SNOWMELT OR SPRING RAINS.
FEBRUARY WAS ANOTHER MONTH OF WINTER WEATHER FOR MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE AVERAGED OVER 8 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE…MAKING FEBRUARY 2011 THE COOLEST SINCE 2001 AND THE 24TH COOLEST ON RECORD FOR THE STATE. PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL CAME IN ABOVE AVERAGE…IT WAS THE 13TH WETTEST OF RECORD AND THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FELL WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA.
BILLINGS…GLASGOW…GREAT FALLS…HELENA…LIVINGSTON AND MISSOULA ALL SET ONE OR MORE DAILY RECORDS FOR TOTAL PRECIPITATION AND/OR TOTAL SNOWFALL. GREAT FALLS ALSO SET A RECORD FOR THEIR SNOWIEST FEBRUARY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WERE 7.91 INCHES AT
MULLAN PASSAND 10.1 INCHES AT STAHL PEAK SNOTEL NEAR LINCOLN.
SNOWPACK…
MARCH 1 MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS THREE MONTHS COMING IN ABOVE AVERAGE AND WELL ABOVE LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME. THE SNOW WATER CONTENT ON MARCH 1 REPRESENTS ABOUT 82 PERCENT OF THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND 75 PERCENT OF THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK AS OF MARCH 1…
PERCENT OF PERCENT OF
AVERAGE LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE 113 165
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 115 178
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 110 153
PERCENT OF PERCENT OF JANUARY
AVERAGE LAST YEAR PERCENT CHANGE
COLUMBIA BASIN 115 178 +2
MISSOURI BASIN 111 148 -2
YELLOWSTONE BASIN 108 158 +3
ST. MARY BASIN 111 158 +3
ST. MARY/MILK BASIN 144 154 -11
PRECIPITATION…
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FOR FEBRUARY BY BASIN…
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 106
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 105
MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FOR FEBRUARY…
PERCENT OF PERCENT OF
AVERAGE LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE 110 229
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 110 283
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 110 193
MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FOR THE WATER YEAR…
PERCENT OF PERCENT OF
AVERAGE LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE 113 145
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 114 162
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 112 131
CALENDAR YEAR 2011 AND WATER YEAR 2011 PERCENT OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR SELECTED CITIES ARE SHOWN BELOW…
PERCENT OF NORMAL PERCENT OF NORMAL
CALENDAR YEAR 2011 WATER YEAR 2011
CITY JAN 1 TO FEB 28 OCT 1 TO FEB 28
BILLINGS 69 109
BOZEMAN 37 85
BUTTE 70 86
CUT BANK M M
DILLON 13 114
GLASGOW 400 221
GREAT FALLS 187 177
HAVRE 176 161
HELENA 127 148
KALISPELL 135 132
LEWISTOWN 73 106
MILES CITY 69 54
MISSOULA 198 157
RESERVOIRS…
MAJOR RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF MARCH 1
PERCENT OF PERCENT OF
AVERAGE LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE 111 109
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 133 93
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 105 115
PERCENT OF NORMAL RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF MARCH 1 FOR SELECTED
RESERVOIRS…
RESERVOIR PERCENT OF NORMAL
MAR 1 MAR 1
2011 2010
BIGHORN RESERVOIR 103 112
CANYON FERRY RESERVOIR 94 105
CLARK CANYON RESERVOIR 113 114
FLATHEAD LAKE 105 98
FORT PECK LAKE 115 85
FRESNO RESERVOIR 192 99
MARCH 9…164 PERCENT
GIBSON RESERVOIR 36 52
HEBGEN RESERVOIR 106 108
HUNGRY HORSE RESERVOIR 115 127
LAKE ELWELL / TIBER RESERVOIR 115 109
LAKE KOOCANUSA 124 178
LAKE SHERBURNE 237 133
LIMA RESERVOIR 133 114
NELSON RESERVOIR 124 114
PISHKIN RESERVOIR 109 108
SWIFT RESERVOIR 79 105
WILLOW CREEK RESERVOIR 126 125
STREAMFLOW…
STREAMFLOW FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 1 THROUGH JULY 31…ASSUMING
NORMAL PRECIPITATION
STATEWIDE 110
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 115
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 106
BELOW ARE AVERAGED RIVER BASIN RUNOFF FORECAST SUMMARIES FOR THE PERIOD APRIL THROUGH SEPTEMBER. THESE FORECASTS ASSUME NEAR NORMAL SPRING CONDITIONS AND DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE…70 OR LESS…OR ABOVE AVERAGE…110 OR MORE…SNOWMELT OR SPRING RAIN.
FORECASTS FOR RIVERS AND SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE PROVIDED BY THE NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IN
PORTLAND…OREGON. FORECASTS FOR RIVERS AND SITES EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE FROM THE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER IN PLEASANT HILL…MISSOURI. ALL FORECASTS ARE IN COOPERATION AND COORDINATION WITH NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE…USDA.
MOST
PROBABLE REASONABLE REASONABLE
FORECAST MAXIMUM MINIMUM
PERIOD /PCT AVG/ /PCT AVG/ /PCT AVG/
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN
KOOTENAI RIVER
LIBBY RESVR INFLOW APR-SEP 105 126 84
CLARK FORK
ABOVE BLACKFOOT RIVER APR-SEP 111 165 57
ABOVE MISSOULA APR-SEP 113 146 80
BELOW MISSOULA APR-SEP 110 137 84
ST. REGIS APR-SEP 112 147 76
NEAR PLAINS APR-SEP 114 139 89
BLACKFOOT RIVER
NEAR BONNER APR-SEP 122 158 85
BITTERROOT RIVER
AT MOUTH APR-SEP 106 128 84
NORTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER
NEAR COLUMBIA FALLS APR-SEP 113 132 94
MIDDLE FORK FLATHEAD RIVER
NEAR WEST GLACIER NR APR-SEP 116 134 98
SOUTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER
HUNGRY HORSE RES INFLOW APR-SEP 121 146 97
FLATHEAD RIVER
COLUMBIA FALLS APR-SEP 117 139 95
FLATHEAD LAKE INFLOW APR-SEP 117 140 93
SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN
ST. MARY RIVER
BABB NR APR-SEP 110 126 94
MISSOURI RIVER BASIN
RED ROCK RIVER
LIMA RES INFLOW APR-SEP 93 133 54
BEAVERHEAD RIVER
CLARK CANYON INFLOW APR-SEP 85 144 34
BARRETTS APR-SEP 71 133 29
RUBY RIVER
RUBY RESERVOIR INFLOW APR-SEP 102 135 69
BIG HOLE RIVER
NEAR MELROSE APR-SEP 108 142 74
MADISON RIVER
HEBGEN RES INFLOW APR-SEP 98 114 82
ENNIS RESERVOIR INFLOW APR-SEP 93 112 74
GALLATIN RIVER
NEAR GALLATIN GATEWAY APR-SEP 103 125 81
LOGAN APR-SEP 106 140 72
MISSOURI RIVER
TOSTON APR-SEP 99 132 67
FORT BENTON APR-SEP 101 134 68
VIRGELLE APR-SEP 100 134 67
NEAR LANDUSKY APR-SEP 100 134 67
BELOW FORT PECK DAM APR-SEP 89 117 61
SHEEP CREEK
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS APR-SEP 125 160 92
SUN RIVER
GIBSON RES INFLOW APR-SEP 110 132 88
MARIAS RIVER
NEAR SHELBY APR-SEP 106 149 63
MUSSELSHELL RIVER
HARLOWTON APR-SEP 120 196 43
MILK RIVER
WESTERN CROSSING APR-SEP 130 179 81
EASTERN CROSSING APR-SEP 161 233 89
YELLOWSTONE RIVER
YELLOWSTN LK OUTLT…WY APR-SEP 105 124 86
CORWIN SPRINGS APR-SEP 112 130 93
NEAR LIVINGSTON APR-SEP 110 130 90
BILLINGS APR-SEP 107 133 80
MILES CITY APR-SEP 103 129 76
NEAR SIDNEY APR-SEP 103 130 77
BOULDER RIVER
BIG TIMBER APR-SEP 106 130 83
STILLWATER RIVER
NEAR ABSAROKEE APR-SEP 91 113 70
CLARKS FORK YELLOWSTONE RIVER
NEAR BELFRY APR-SEP 105 124 87
LITTLE BIGHORN RIVER
NEAR HARDIN APR-SEP 97 133 60
TONGUE RIVER
TONGUE RIVER RES INFLOW APR-SEP 88 134 42
POWDER RIVER
MOORHEAD APR-SEP 98 150 47
LOCATE APR-SEP 98 154 42
DEFINITIONS
MOST PROBABLE FORECAST…GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS TO DATE…THIS IS THE BEST ESTIMATE OF WHAT THE ACTUAL RUNOFF VOLUME WILL BE THIS SEASON.
REASONABLE MAXIMUM FORECAST…GIVEN CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS…THE SEASONAL RUNOFF THAT HAS A TEN (10) PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
REASONABLE MINIMUM FORECAST…GIVEN CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS…THE SEASONAL RUNOFF THAT HAS A NINETY (90) PERCENT
CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX…
THE SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX…SWSI…IS A MEASURE OF AVAILABLE SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. WATER USERS WHO RELY ON MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION CAN USE THE INDEX TO EVALUATE SEASONAL SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES. THE SWSI ACCOUNTS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK…MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION…
STREAMFLOW…RESERVOIR STORAGE AND SOIL MOISTURE. SWSI VALUES ARE CALCULATED FOR 54 BASINS IN MONTANA. SWSI VALUES ARE PROVIDED BY THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE…USDA.
NUMBER OF BASINS
SWSI RATING SURFACE WATER CONDITION 2011 2010
-3.0 TO -4.0 EXTREMELY DRY 0 14
-2.0 TO -2.9 MODERATELY DRY 0 13
-1.0 TO -1.9 SLIGHTLY DRY 0 13
-0.9 TO +0.9 NEAR AVERAGE 11 7
+1.0 TO +1.9 SLIGHTLY WET 22 1
+2.0 TO +2.9 MODERATELY WET 14 0
+3.0 TO +4.0 EXTREMELY WET 4 1
NOT AVAILABLE 1 3
VALUES FOR SPECIFIC BASINS AS OF MAR 1 2011 AND MAR 1 2010 ARE LISTED
BELOW…
SWSI SWSI
BASIN 2011 2010
TOBACCO RIVER 1.7 -3.2
KOOTENAI FT. STEELE TO LIBBY DAM 1.5 -2.9
KOOTENAI RIVER BELOW LIBBY DAM 2.9 -0.1
FISHER RIVER 1.5 -2.8
YAAK RIVER 0.8 -3.4
NORTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER 2.3 -3.2
MIDDLE FORK FLATHEAD RIVER 2.1 -3.2
SOUTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER 3.7 -0.4
FLATHEAD RIVER AT COLUMBIA FALLS 2.7 -2.4
SWAN RIVER 3.4 -1.2
FLATHEAD RIVER AT POLSON 2.4 -2.9
MISSION VALLEY NA -3.5
LITTLE BITTERROOT RIVER 1.3 -3.6
CLARK FORK RIVER ABOVE MILLTOWN 1.5 -2.2
BLACKFOOT RIVER 2.4 -2.9
BITTERROOT RIVER 1.4 -3.4
CLARK FORK RIVER BELOW BITTERROOT RIVER 1.8 -3.0
CLARK FORK RIVER BELOW FLATHEAD RIVER 2.2 -2.9
BEAVERHEAD RIVER 0.8 -0.8
RUBY RIVER 1.1 -1.7
BIG HOLE RIVER 1.2 -1.3
BOULDER RIVER (JEFFERSON) 0.2 -1.7
JEFFERSON RIVER 1.8 -0.7
MADISON RIVER 0.3 -1.8
GALLATIN RIVER 1.1 -1.4
MISSOURI RIVER ABOVE CANYON FERRY 0.5 -1.6
MISSOURI RIVER BELOW CANYON FERRY 0.1 -1.5
SMITH RIVER 2.6 -0.2
SUN RIVER 1.4 -3.6
TETON RIVER 1.7 -1.4
BIRCH/DUPUYER CREEKS 1.3 -2.4
UPPER JUDITH RIVER 3.5 3.4
MARIAS RIVER ABOVE TIBER 0.6 NA
MARIAS RIVER BELOW TIBER 2.7 NA
MUSSELSHELL RIVER 2.4 1.2
MISSOURI RIVER ABOVE FT. PECK 0.9 NA
MISSOURI RIVER BELOW FT. PECK 1.1 -1.6
ST. MARY RIVER 2.5 -2.9
MILK RIVER 3.1 -0.5
DEARBORN RIVER NEAR CRAIG 2.0 -3.0
YELLOWSTONE RIVER ABOVE LIVINGSTON 1.7 -3.2
SHIELDS RIVER 2.1 -0.9
BOULDER RIVER (YELLOWSTONE) 2.4 -2.9
STILLWATER RIVER -0.1 -3.1
ROCK/RED LODGE CREEKS -0.9 -1.0
CLARKS FORK RIVER 1.5 -3.0
YELLOWSTONE RIVER ABOVE BIGHORN RIVER 1.5 -3.1
BIGHORN RIVER BELOW BIGHORN LAKE 0.4 -1.7
LITTLE BIGHORN RIVER 1.2 -2.7
YELLOWSTONE RIVER BELOW BIGHORN RIVER 1.0 -2.5
TONGUE RIVER 1.0 -2.1
POWDER RIVER 1.1 -1.9
OUTLOOK…
THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH INDICATES THAT THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WEST OF THE DIVIDE…AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE OVER WEST…SOUTHWEST AND THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF MONTANA. THERE IS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
FOR THE PERIOD APRIL THROUGH JUNE…THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONTANA. THERE IS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. FOR PRECIPITATION…FORECAST TOOLS SHOW NO TENDENCIES TOWARD WETTER OR DRIER FOR THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT…THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE…BELOW OR NEAR AVERAGE.
THE NEXT WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR 2011 WILL BE ISSUED BY APRIL 15.
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