For 12 years, GOES-11, one of NOAA’s geostationary satellites, tracked weather and severe storms that impacted the U.S. West Coast, Hawaii and the Pacific region. Today, NOAA began the process to deactivate the satellite, which is approaching the end of its useful life, and replace it with a new, more advanced spacecraft.

The new geostationary satellite, GOES-15, has taken the place of GOES-11 and now becomes NOAA’s GOES West spacecraft in a fixed orbit over the Pacific Ocean, midway between Hawaii and the West Coast and 22,300 miles above the equator. GOES-15 provides more data, with better resolution and image stability than GOES-11. GOES-15 joins NOAA’s other operational geostationary satellite, GOES-13, which serves as the GOES East spacecraft. The GOES are not only used for weather applications, but also track space weather, oceanographic changes, forest fires and other hazards and provide scientific data collection and information for search and rescue operations.

Aware that GOES-11 was nearing the end of its fuel supply, NOAA personnel spent the past several months planning for the end of its mission. Deactivation of GOES-11 began today when data observations were shifted to GOES-15. On December 15, NOAA will fire the spacecraft’s booster, moving GOES-11 approximately 185 miles (300 km) above its current geostationary orbit, where it will be officially decommissioned.

“With its steady eye on dangerous weather conditions, GOES-11 served America well, providing the critical images and atmospheric measurements NOAA meteorologists needed to produce life-saving forecasts,” said Mary Kicza, assistant administrator for NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service.

Launched May 3, 2000, GOES-11 was originally planned for a five-year mission, but lasted nearly seven years longer. “GOES-11’s extended service is testimony to the great work of Space Systems/Loral, NASA and the team of NOAA staff and contractors who acquired and managed the spacecraft ,” Kicza added.

In addition to GOES-15 and GOES-13, NOAA has two other geostationary satellites in orbit – GOES-12, which provides data for South America, and GOES-14, which is in a storage orbit as a ready backup or replacement.

NOAA is planning the next generation of geostationary satellites, called GOES-R, with the first set to launch in 2015. GOES-R is expected to more than double the clarity of today’s GOES imagery and provide more atmospheric observations than current capabilities with more frequent images. In addition, data from GOES-R instruments will be used to create many different products NOAA meteorologists and others will use to monitor the atmosphere, land, ocean and the sun.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

Texas has warmest summer on record of any state

September 8, 2011

The blistering heat experienced by the nation during August, as well as the June through August months, marks the second warmest summer on record according to scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, N.C. The persistent heat, combined with below-average precipitation across the southern U.S. during August and the three summer months, continued a record-breaking drought across the region.

The average U.S. temperature in August was 75.7 degrees F, which is 3.0 degrees above the long-term (1901-2000) average, while the summertime temperature was 74.5 degrees F, which is 2.4 degrees above average. The warmest August on record for the contiguous United States was 75.8 degrees F in 1983, while its warmest summer on record at 74.6 degrees F occurred in 1936. Precipitation across the nation during August averaged 2.31 inches, 0.29 inches below the long-term average. The nationwide summer precipitation was 1.0 inch below average.

This monthly analysis, based on records dating back to 1895, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.

U.S. climate highlights – August

• Excessive heat in six states – Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana – resulted in their warmest August on record. This year ranked in the top ten warmest August for five other states: Florida (3rd), Georgia (4th), Utah (5th), Wyoming (8th), and South Carolina (9th).The Southwest and South also had their warmest August on record.

• Only nine of the lower 48 states experienced August temperatures near average, and no state had August average temperatures below average.

• Wetter-than-normal conditions were widespread across the Northeastern United States, which had its second wettest August, as well as parts of the Northern Plains and California.  Drier-than-normal conditions reigned across the interior West, the Midwest, and the South.

• Hurricane Irene made landfall near Cape Lookout, N.C. as a Category 1 storm on August 27, marking the first hurricane landfall in the U.S. since Hurricane Ike in September 2008. Irene made a second landfall in New Jersey as a hurricane on August 28, marking only the second recorded hurricane landfall in that state.

• Irene contributed to New Jersey, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire having their wettest August on record. Meanwhile, Massachusetts (2nd), Connecticut (2nd), Delaware (3rd), Maine (3rd), Maryland (5th), Pennsylvania (5th), and Rhode Island (9th) had a top 10 wet August.

• Several major U.S. cities broke all-time monthly rainfall amounts during August. New York City (Central Park) measured 18.95 inches of rain, exceeding the previous record of 16.85 inches in 1882. In Philadelphia, 19.31 inches of rain was observed, besting the previous monthly record of 13.07 inches in September 1999.

• Louisiana (3rd), Tennessee (4th), Texas (5th), Mississippi (6th), Georgia, (6th), Illinois (8th), Washington (9th), and Alabama (9th) had precipitation totals among their top ten driest on record.

• Despite record rainfall in parts of the country, drought covered about one-third of the contiguous United States, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index indicated that parts of Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas are experiencing drought of greater intensity, but not yet duration, than those of the 1930s and 1950s. Drought intensity refers to the rate at which surface and ground water is lost, due to a combination of several factors, including evaporation and lack of precipitation.

• An analysis of Texas statewide tree-ring records dating back to 1550 indicates that the summer 2011 drought in Texas is matched by only one summer (1789), indicating that the summer 2011 drought appears to be unusual even in the context of the multi-century tree-ring record. 

U.S. climate highlights – Summer

• Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Louisiana had their warmest (June-August) summers on record. Average summer temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma, at 86.8 degrees F and 86.5 degrees F, respectively, exceeded the previous seasonal statewide average temperature record for any state during any season. The previous warmest summer statewide average temperature was in Oklahoma, during 1934 at 85.2 degrees F.

• Fifteen states had a summer average temperature ranking among their top ten warmest. West of the Rockies, a persistent trough brought below-average temperatures to the Pacific Northwest, where Washington and Oregon were the only states across the lower 48 to have below-average summer temperatures.

• Texas had its driest summer on record, with a statewide average of 2.44 inches of rain. This is 5.29 inches below the long-term average, and 1.04 inches less than the previous driest summer in 1956. New Mexico had its second driest summer and Oklahoma its third driest summer. New Jersey and California had their wettest summers on record with 22.50 inches and 1.93 inches, respectively.

• The U.S. Climate Extremes Index, a measure of the percent area of the country experiencing extreme climate conditions, was nearly four times the average value was during summer 2011. This is the third largest summer value of the record, which dates to 1910. The major drivers were extremes in warm minimum and maximum temperatures and in the wet and dry tails of the Palmer Drought Severity Index.

• Based on NOAA’s Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index, the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand was 22.3 percent above average during summer. This is the largest such value during the index’s period of record, which dates to 1895.

Other U.S. climate highlights

• During the six-month period (March-August), much-above-average temperatures dominated the southern and eastern United States. New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Florida, all experienced their warmest March-August on record. Cooler-than-average temperatures dominated the West and Northwest.

• For the year-to-date period, the average statewide temperature for Texas was 69.9 degrees F, the warmest such period on record for the state. This bests the previous record for the year-to-date period of 69.8 degrees F in 2000.

• For precipitation year-to-date, New Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana have all had their driest January-August periods on record, while Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut were record wet during the same period.

NCDC’s monthly reports are based on preliminary data, which are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and as new scientific methods improve NCDC’s processing algorithms.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

New 1981-2010 ‘normals’ to be released this week

June 29, 2011

According to the 1981-2010 normals to be released by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on July 1, temperatures across the United States were on average, approximately 0.5 degree F warmer than the 1971-2000 time period.

Normals serve as a 30 year baseline average of important climate variables that are used to understand average climate conditions at any location and serve as a consistent point of reference. The new normals update the 30-year averages of climatological variables, including average temperature and precipitation for more than 7,500 locations across the United States. This once-a-decade update will replace the current 1971–2000 normals.

In the continental United States, every state’s annual maximum and minimum temperature increased on average. “The climate of the 2000s is about 1.5 degree F warmer than the 1970s, so we would expect the updated 30-year normals to be warmer,” said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., NCDC director.

Using standards established by the World Meteorological Organization, the 30-year normals are used to compare current climate conditions with recent history. Local weathercasters traditionally use normals for comparisons with the day’s weather conditions.

In addition to their application in the weather sector, normals are used extensively by electric and gas companies for short- and long-term energy use projections. NOAA’s normals are also used by some states as the standard benchmark by which they determine the statewide rate that utilities are allowed to charge their customers.

The agricultural sector also heavily depends on normals. Farmers rely on normals to help make decisions on both crop selection and planting times. Agribusinesses use normals to monitor “departures from normal conditions” throughout the growing season and to assess past and current crop yields.

NCDC made many improvements and additions to the scientific methodology used to calculate the 1981-2010 normals. They include improved scientific quality control and statistical techniques. Comparisons to previous normals take these new techniques into account. The 1981-2010 normals provide a more comprehensive suite of precipitation and snowfall statistics. In addition, NCDC is providing hourly normals for more than 250 stations at the request of users, such as the energy industry.

Some of the key climate normals include: monthly and daily maximum temperature; monthly and daily minimum temperature; daily and monthly precipitation and snowfall statistics; and daily and monthly heating and cooling degree days. The 1981-2010 climate normals is one of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions. NOAA and its predecessor agencies have been providing updated 30-year normals once every decade since the 1921-1950 normals were released in 1956.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

First look at the snow pack data and the snow/water % of average data:

All the river basins below show above normal snowpack trends with a sharp increase throughout the month of April and many of our local snow/water % of average values are 135% to 150% of average or 35% to 50% above the 30 year mean.

Gallatin River Basin Snow Data

Madison River Basin Snowpack

Upper Yellowstone River Basin Snow Data

Upper Clark Fork Snow Data

Jefferson (Big Hole-Beaverhead-Ruby) Snow DataMadison River Basin Snow DataGallatin River Basin Snow Data

Valley precipitation values were mostly below normal.

One of the most interesting contrasts in the data is between Gallatin Field and Bozeman MSU.

Gallatin Field: Avg. Temperature 34.7 and that is +1.9 degrees. Warmest High 59 on the 31st, coldest low 12 degrees on the 20th. Precipitation .82″ and that is below normal by -.20″

MSU-Bozeman: Avg. Temperature 35.4 and that was above normal by +.3 degrees. Warmest high 54 on the 31st, coldest low 10 degrees on the 7th. Precipitation 1.16″ which is below normal by -.24″

Butte: Avg Temperature 37.2 degrees or below normal -.4 degrees. Warmest high 60 on the 31st, coldest low 19 on the 12th. Precipitation .80″ or below normal by -.16″.

Anaconda: Avg. Temperature 34.2 degrees or below normal by -.2 degrees. Warmest high 55 on the 31st, coldest low 13 on the 23rd. Precipitation 1.29″ and that was above normal by +.25″.

Boulder: Avg. Temperature 34.8 degrees or +1.5 degrees above normal. Warmest high 54 degrees on the 30th & 31st, coldest low 16 degrees on the 4th. Precipitation only .17″ and that is below normal by -.35″.

Ennis: Avg. Temperature 35.3 degrees or -.5 degrees below normal. Warmest high 56 degrees on the 31st, coldest low 15 degrees on the 20th. Precipitation .83″ or below normal by only -.04″

Townsend: Avg. Temperature 36.4 degrees or -.9 below normal. Warmest high 61 degrees on the 10th, coldest low 24 degrees on the 1st. Precipitation .38″ and that was -.16″ below normal.

April Forecast is calling for more of the same with La Nina weakening but continuing to produce in general cooler than normal and wetter than normal conditions for Montana.

April Precipitation Outlook

A classic example occurred this morning between Butte and Bozeman. On radar absolutely NOTHING is shown to emphasize the intensity of the snow. Here is a picture of the NWS radar and a close up radar shot from the Storm Tracker Weather computer.

NWS Radar at 8:30am March 28, 2011

STORMTRACKER Doppler Radar at 8:15am March 28, 2011

Ok, now look at web cam pictures from the ICAM network and MDOT network over the mountain passes.

Bozeman ICAM March 28th, 2011

MDOT Bozeman Pass 8:30am March 28, 2011

My backyard, up to 3″ of snow in most areas I measured and a few 4″ measurements as well.

Distance between radar sites is great. Billings NWS to Great Falls NWS to Missoula NWS to Pocatello, ID NWS are the 4 nexrad 88D radar sites that cover SW Montana. The problem is the vast distance. As a radar beam travels away from it’s origin the higher and higher the beam travels. The other hurtle is the numerous mountain ranges that block the lowest radar beams.

So what do we use to offset this radar gap, satellite imagery and surface observations with the numerous web cameras.

Enhanced Infra Red Satellite Image

Analyzing the above infra red satellite image you can see a very small area of red and pink over northern Gallatin County. The colors tell us that the cloud tops are rather high and the thus there is more moisture within that region. I find it amazing that such a small wave of moisture can dump that much moisture.

I measured 3″ to 4″ of snow around 8:30am this morning on my deck.

April Temperature Outlook

CPC April Precipitation Forecast

A weakening La Nina continues to impact the weather patterns across the western US through March with cooler and wetter than normal conditions for most areas in Montana.

Hardest hit regions in the state are the far northern half of Montana with above normal snowpack at all levels and a serious threat of flooding once all that snow melts up north.

Typically, in a normal season, snowpack will continue to accumulate up to about April 15th and thereafter the accumulation to melting ratio’s start to favor more melting than accumulating. Looking at the Climate Predicition Center long range forecast for April (graphics above) we are likely to see more of the same, below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation across Montana. There is a 40% to 50% chance that average temperatures for April will be below normal and a 30% to 40% chance that we will experience above normal precipitation.

March 15, 2011

This year, the globe experienced the 17th warmest February since record keeping began in 1880, as the climate phenomenon La Niña continued to be a significant factor. Last month’s average Arctic sea ice extent tied with 2005 as the smallest extent for February in its 32-year period of record.

The monthly analysis from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions.

Global surface temperature Anomalies – February 2011.
High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)

Global Temperature Highlights – February

• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for February 2011 was the 17th warmest on record at 54.62 F (12.50 C), which is 0.72 F (0.40 C) above the 20th century average of 53.9 F (12.1 C). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/- 0.18 F (0.10 C).
• Separately, the global land surface temperature was 0.92 F (0.51 C) above the 20th century average of 37.8 F (3.2 C), which tied for the 28th warmest February on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.56 F (0.31 C). Warmer-than-average conditions occurred across most of Asia, central Africa, northern Alaska and southern Greenland. Cooler-than-average regions included Eastern Europe, western Russia, eastern Siberia and the western United States.

• The February global ocean surface temperature was 0.65 F (0.36 C) above the 20th century average of 60.6 F (15.9 C), making it the 10th warmest February on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.13 F (0.07 C). The warmth was most pronounced across the northern Pacific Ocean, the tropical Atlantic Ocean and part of the North Atlantic near Greenland and Canada.

Global Temperature Highlights – December 2010 – February 2011

• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for Northern Hemisphere winter (December 2010 – February 2011) was 0.70 F (0.39 C) above the 20th century average of 53.8 F (12.1 C), making it the 16th warmest on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.16 F (0.09 C).
• The December 2010 – February 2011 worldwide land surface temperature was 0.81 F (0.45 C) above the 20th century average of 37.8 F (3.2 C) — the 26th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.32 F (0.18 C). Warmer-than-average conditions were particularly felt across eastern Canada, southern Greenland and northern Siberia. Cooler-than-average regions included Eastern Europe, western Russia and Mongolia.

• The global ocean surface temperature for December 2010 – February 2011 was 0.65 F (0.36 C) above the 20th century average of 60.5 F (15.8 C) and tied for the 10th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/-0.13 F (0.07 C). The warmth was most pronounced across the northern Pacific Ocean, the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and the North Atlantic, near Greenland and Canada.
• La Niña conditions weakened in February, although sea-surface temperatures remained below normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, La Niña will continue to have global impacts for the next several months, but neither La Niña nor El Niño are expected to affect the region by June.

Polar Sea Ice and Precipitation Highlights

• The average Arctic sea ice extent for February was 5.54 million square miles (14.36 million square km), which is 8.2 percent below average. This ties with February 2005 as the smallest February Arctic sea ice extent since records began in 1979 and is the third consecutive month with record low Arctic ice extent.

• For the winter period, the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent over land averaged 760,000 square miles (1.98 million square km) above average, ranking as the third largest seasonal snow cover extent on record behind the winters of 1977–1978 and 2009–2010. The North American season snow cover extent was the third largest on record, while Eurasia’s was fourth largest.

• Average rainfall across Australia was 76 percent above average during February, making it the second wettest February on record behind 2000. Rainfall in South Australia was more than four times above average, the wettest February on record for the state. The summer period (December 2010 – February 2011) was the second wettest summer on record for Australia.

Scientists, researchers and leaders in government and industry use NOAA’s monthly reports to help track trends and other changes in the world’s climate. This climate service has a wide range of practical uses, from helping farmers know what and when to plant, to guiding resource managers with critical decisions about water, energy and other vital assets.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook.

* Included in this report: Based on requests from our users, NOAA is now making it easier to find information in its global State of the Climate report about margins of error associated with its global temperature calculations. NCDC previously displayed this information in certain graphics associated with the report, but it will now publish these ranges in the form of “plus or minus” values associated with each monthly temperature calculation. These values are calculated using techniques published in peer-reviewed scientific literature. More information.

http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/cbsnews_player_embed.swf

http://www.cbsnews.com/2718-100_162-730.html?tag=watchnow

…MONTANA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK AS OF MARCH 2011…

MONTANA WATER SUPPLY FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS IN COOPERATION AND COORDINATION WITH THE  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MISSOULA AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE…USDA.

THE WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR THE 2011 SUMMER SEASON PROJECTS WATER SUPPLIES EAST AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE. THESE FORECASTS ASSUME NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE AND RUNOFF  CONDITIONS FOR MARCH THROUGH JULY AND DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR MUCH BELOW AVERAGE…70 PERCENT OR LESS…OR ABOVE AVERAGE…110 PERCENT OR MORE…SNOWMELT OR SPRING RAINS.

FEBRUARY WAS ANOTHER MONTH OF WINTER WEATHER FOR MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE AVERAGED OVER 8 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE…MAKING FEBRUARY 2011 THE COOLEST SINCE 2001 AND THE 24^TH COOLEST ON RECORD FOR THE STATE. PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL CAME IN ABOVE AVERAGE…IT WAS THE 13TH WETTEST OF RECORD AND THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FELL WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA.
BILLINGS…GLASGOW…GREAT FALLS…HELENA…LIVINGSTON AND MISSOULA ALL SET ONE OR MORE DAILY RECORDS FOR TOTAL PRECIPITATION AND/OR TOTAL SNOWFALL. GREAT FALLS ALSO SET A RECORD FOR THEIR SNOWIEST FEBRUARY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WERE 7.91 INCHES AT
MULLAN PASSAND 10.1 INCHES AT STAHL PEAK SNOTEL NEAR LINCOLN.

SNOWPACK…
MARCH 1 MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS THREE MONTHS COMING IN ABOVE AVERAGE AND WELL ABOVE LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME. THE SNOW WATER CONTENT ON MARCH 1 REPRESENTS ABOUT 82 PERCENT OF THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND 75 PERCENT OF THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK AS OF MARCH 1…
PERCENT OF    PERCENT OF
AVERAGE      LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE                            113           165
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE       115           178
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE       110           153

PERCENT OF    PERCENT OF     JANUARY
AVERAGE      LAST YEAR   PERCENT CHANGE
COLUMBIA BASIN            115           178           +2
MISSOURI BASIN            111           148           -2
YELLOWSTONE BASIN         108           158           +3
ST. MARY BASIN            111           158           +3
ST. MARY/MILK BASIN       144           154          -11

PRECIPITATION…

MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FOR FEBRUARY BY BASIN…

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE       106
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE       105

MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FOR FEBRUARY…
PERCENT OF    PERCENT OF
AVERAGE      LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE                            110           229
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE       110           283
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE       110           193

MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FOR THE WATER YEAR…
PERCENT OF    PERCENT OF
AVERAGE      LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE                            113           145
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE       114           162
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE       112           131

CALENDAR YEAR 2011 AND WATER YEAR 2011 PERCENT OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR SELECTED CITIES ARE SHOWN BELOW…

PERCENT OF NORMAL      PERCENT OF NORMAL
CALENDAR YEAR 2011      WATER YEAR 2011
CITY              JAN 1 TO FEB 28        OCT 1 TO FEB 28

BILLINGS                 69                    109
BOZEMAN                  37                     85
BUTTE                    70                     86
CUT BANK                  M                      M
DILLON                   13                    114
GLASGOW                 400                    221
GREAT FALLS             187                    177
HAVRE                   176                    161
HELENA                  127                    148
KALISPELL               135                    132
LEWISTOWN                73                    106
MILES CITY               69                     54
MISSOULA                198                    157

RESERVOIRS…

MAJOR RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF MARCH 1
PERCENT OF    PERCENT OF
AVERAGE      LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE                            111           109
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE       133            93
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE       105           115

PERCENT OF NORMAL RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF MARCH 1 FOR SELECTED
RESERVOIRS…

RESERVOIR                            PERCENT OF NORMAL
MAR 1         MAR 1
2011          2010

BIGHORN RESERVOIR                     103           112
CANYON FERRY RESERVOIR                 94           105
CLARK CANYON RESERVOIR                113           114
FLATHEAD LAKE                         105            98
FORT PECK LAKE                        115            85
FRESNO RESERVOIR                      192            99
MARCH 9…164 PERCENT
GIBSON RESERVOIR                       36            52
HEBGEN RESERVOIR                      106           108
HUNGRY HORSE RESERVOIR                115           127
LAKE ELWELL / TIBER RESERVOIR         115           109
LAKE KOOCANUSA                        124           178
LAKE SHERBURNE                        237           133
LIMA RESERVOIR                        133           114
NELSON RESERVOIR                      124           114
PISHKIN RESERVOIR                     109           108
SWIFT RESERVOIR                        79           105
WILLOW CREEK RESERVOIR                126           125

STREAMFLOW…

STREAMFLOW FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 1 THROUGH JULY 31…ASSUMING
NORMAL PRECIPITATION

STATEWIDE                          110
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE     115
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE     106

BELOW ARE AVERAGED RIVER BASIN RUNOFF FORECAST SUMMARIES FOR THE PERIOD APRIL THROUGH SEPTEMBER. THESE FORECASTS ASSUME NEAR NORMAL SPRING CONDITIONS AND DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE…70 OR LESS…OR ABOVE AVERAGE…110 OR MORE…SNOWMELT OR SPRING RAIN.

FORECASTS FOR RIVERS AND SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE PROVIDED BY THE NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IN
PORTLAND…OREGON. FORECASTS FOR RIVERS AND SITES EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE FROM THE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER IN PLEASANT HILL…MISSOURI. ALL FORECASTS ARE IN COOPERATION AND COORDINATION WITH NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE…USDA.

MOST
PROBABLE REASONABLE REASONABLE
FORECAST   MAXIMUM    MINIMUM
PERIOD  /PCT AVG/ /PCT AVG/  /PCT AVG/
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN

KOOTENAI RIVER
LIBBY RESVR INFLOW      APR-SEP    105       126        84
CLARK FORK
ABOVE BLACKFOOT RIVER   APR-SEP    111       165        57
ABOVE MISSOULA          APR-SEP    113       146        80
BELOW MISSOULA          APR-SEP    110       137        84
ST. REGIS               APR-SEP    112       147        76
NEAR PLAINS             APR-SEP    114       139        89
BLACKFOOT RIVER
NEAR BONNER             APR-SEP    122       158        85
BITTERROOT RIVER
AT MOUTH                APR-SEP    106       128        84
NORTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER
NEAR COLUMBIA FALLS     APR-SEP    113       132        94
MIDDLE FORK FLATHEAD RIVER
NEAR WEST GLACIER NR    APR-SEP    116       134        98
SOUTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER
HUNGRY HORSE RES INFLOW APR-SEP    121       146        97
FLATHEAD RIVER
COLUMBIA FALLS          APR-SEP    117       139        95
FLATHEAD LAKE INFLOW    APR-SEP    117       140        93

SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN

ST. MARY RIVER
BABB NR                 APR-SEP    110       126        94

MISSOURI RIVER BASIN

RED ROCK RIVER
LIMA RES INFLOW         APR-SEP     93       133        54
BEAVERHEAD RIVER
CLARK CANYON INFLOW     APR-SEP     85       144        34
BARRETTS                APR-SEP     71       133        29
RUBY RIVER
RUBY RESERVOIR INFLOW   APR-SEP    102       135        69
BIG HOLE RIVER
NEAR MELROSE            APR-SEP    108       142        74
MADISON RIVER
HEBGEN RES INFLOW       APR-SEP     98       114        82
ENNIS RESERVOIR INFLOW  APR-SEP     93       112        74
GALLATIN RIVER
NEAR GALLATIN GATEWAY   APR-SEP    103       125        81
LOGAN                   APR-SEP    106       140        72
MISSOURI RIVER
TOSTON                  APR-SEP     99       132        67
FORT BENTON             APR-SEP    101       134        68
VIRGELLE                APR-SEP    100       134        67
NEAR LANDUSKY           APR-SEP    100       134        67
BELOW FORT PECK DAM     APR-SEP     89       117        61
SHEEP CREEK
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS   APR-SEP    125       160        92
SUN RIVER
GIBSON RES INFLOW       APR-SEP    110       132        88
MARIAS RIVER
NEAR SHELBY             APR-SEP    106       149        63
MUSSELSHELL RIVER
HARLOWTON               APR-SEP    120       196        43
MILK RIVER
WESTERN CROSSING        APR-SEP    130       179        81
EASTERN CROSSING        APR-SEP    161       233        89
YELLOWSTONE RIVER
YELLOWSTN LK OUTLT…WY APR-SEP    105       124        86
CORWIN SPRINGS          APR-SEP    112       130        93
NEAR LIVINGSTON         APR-SEP    110       130        90
BILLINGS                APR-SEP    107       133        80
MILES CITY              APR-SEP    103       129        76
NEAR SIDNEY             APR-SEP    103       130        77
BOULDER RIVER
BIG TIMBER              APR-SEP    106       130        83
STILLWATER RIVER
NEAR ABSAROKEE          APR-SEP     91       113        70
CLARKS FORK YELLOWSTONE RIVER
NEAR BELFRY             APR-SEP    105       124        87
LITTLE BIGHORN RIVER
NEAR HARDIN             APR-SEP     97       133        60
TONGUE RIVER
TONGUE RIVER RES INFLOW APR-SEP     88       134        42
POWDER RIVER
MOORHEAD                APR-SEP     98       150        47
LOCATE                  APR-SEP     98       154        42

DEFINITIONS
MOST PROBABLE FORECAST…GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS TO DATE…THIS IS THE BEST ESTIMATE OF WHAT THE ACTUAL RUNOFF VOLUME WILL BE THIS SEASON.

REASONABLE MAXIMUM FORECAST…GIVEN CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS…THE SEASONAL RUNOFF THAT HAS A TEN (10) PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.

REASONABLE MINIMUM FORECAST…GIVEN CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS…THE SEASONAL RUNOFF THAT HAS A NINETY (90) PERCENT
CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.

SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX…

THE SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX…SWSI…IS A MEASURE OF AVAILABLE SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. WATER USERS WHO RELY ON MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION CAN USE THE INDEX TO EVALUATE SEASONAL SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES. THE SWSI ACCOUNTS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK…MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION…
STREAMFLOW…RESERVOIR STORAGE AND SOIL MOISTURE. SWSI VALUES ARE CALCULATED FOR 54 BASINS IN MONTANA. SWSI VALUES ARE PROVIDED BY THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE…USDA.

NUMBER OF BASINS
SWSI RATING         SURFACE WATER CONDITION      2011    2010
-3.0 TO -4.0            EXTREMELY DRY              0      14
-2.0 TO -2.9            MODERATELY DRY             0      13
-1.0 TO -1.9            SLIGHTLY DRY               0      13
-0.9 TO +0.9            NEAR AVERAGE              11       7
+1.0 TO +1.9            SLIGHTLY WET              22       1
+2.0 TO +2.9            MODERATELY WET            14       0
+3.0 TO +4.0            EXTREMELY WET              4       1
NOT AVAILABLE              1       3

VALUES FOR SPECIFIC BASINS AS OF MAR 1 2011 AND MAR 1 2010 ARE LISTED
BELOW…
SWSI        SWSI
BASIN                                    2011        2010
TOBACCO RIVER                             1.7        -3.2
KOOTENAI FT. STEELE TO LIBBY DAM          1.5        -2.9
KOOTENAI RIVER BELOW LIBBY DAM            2.9        -0.1
FISHER RIVER                              1.5        -2.8
YAAK RIVER                                0.8        -3.4
NORTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER                 2.3        -3.2
MIDDLE FORK FLATHEAD RIVER                2.1        -3.2
SOUTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER                 3.7        -0.4
FLATHEAD RIVER AT COLUMBIA FALLS          2.7        -2.4
SWAN RIVER                                3.4        -1.2
FLATHEAD RIVER AT POLSON                  2.4        -2.9
MISSION VALLEY                             NA        -3.5
LITTLE BITTERROOT RIVER                   1.3        -3.6
CLARK FORK RIVER ABOVE MILLTOWN           1.5        -2.2
BLACKFOOT RIVER                           2.4        -2.9
BITTERROOT RIVER                          1.4        -3.4
CLARK FORK RIVER BELOW BITTERROOT RIVER   1.8        -3.0
CLARK FORK RIVER BELOW FLATHEAD RIVER     2.2        -2.9
BEAVERHEAD RIVER                          0.8        -0.8
RUBY RIVER                                1.1        -1.7
BIG HOLE RIVER                            1.2        -1.3
BOULDER RIVER (JEFFERSON)                 0.2        -1.7
JEFFERSON RIVER                           1.8        -0.7
MADISON RIVER                             0.3        -1.8
GALLATIN RIVER                            1.1        -1.4
MISSOURI RIVER ABOVE CANYON FERRY         0.5        -1.6
MISSOURI RIVER BELOW CANYON FERRY         0.1        -1.5
SMITH RIVER                               2.6        -0.2
SUN RIVER                                 1.4        -3.6
TETON RIVER                               1.7        -1.4
BIRCH/DUPUYER CREEKS                      1.3        -2.4
UPPER JUDITH RIVER                        3.5         3.4
MARIAS RIVER ABOVE TIBER                  0.6          NA
MARIAS RIVER BELOW TIBER                  2.7          NA
MUSSELSHELL RIVER                         2.4         1.2
MISSOURI RIVER ABOVE FT. PECK             0.9          NA
MISSOURI RIVER BELOW FT. PECK             1.1        -1.6
ST. MARY RIVER                            2.5        -2.9
MILK RIVER                                3.1        -0.5
DEARBORN RIVER NEAR CRAIG                 2.0        -3.0
YELLOWSTONE RIVER ABOVE LIVINGSTON        1.7        -3.2
SHIELDS RIVER                             2.1        -0.9
BOULDER RIVER (YELLOWSTONE)               2.4        -2.9
STILLWATER RIVER                         -0.1        -3.1
ROCK/RED LODGE CREEKS                    -0.9        -1.0
CLARKS FORK RIVER                         1.5        -3.0
YELLOWSTONE RIVER ABOVE BIGHORN RIVER     1.5        -3.1
BIGHORN RIVER BELOW BIGHORN LAKE          0.4        -1.7
LITTLE BIGHORN RIVER                      1.2        -2.7
YELLOWSTONE RIVER BELOW BIGHORN RIVER     1.0        -2.5
TONGUE RIVER                              1.0        -2.1
POWDER RIVER                              1.1        -1.9

OUTLOOK…

THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH INDICATES THAT THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WEST OF THE DIVIDE…AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE OVER WEST…SOUTHWEST AND THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF MONTANA. THERE IS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

FOR THE PERIOD APRIL THROUGH JUNE…THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONTANA. THERE IS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. FOR PRECIPITATION…FORECAST TOOLS SHOW NO TENDENCIES TOWARD WETTER OR DRIER FOR THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT…THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE…BELOW OR NEAR AVERAGE.

THE NEXT WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR 2011 WILL BE ISSUED BY APRIL 15.

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