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Colder pattern change arrives late next week November 1, 2012

Posted by mikeheard in Uncategorized.
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GFS forecast modeling for late next week and next weekend is consistently showing a change in the weather pattern to colder and wet.

A persistent westerly flow this weekend into the first half of next week will keep temperatures fairly mild with 50’s and 60’s for highs and lows in the 20’s and 30’s. A few shortwaves will push through with brief periods of showers and mountain flurries but overall very weak in nature.

The change begImageins around Thursday Nov. 8th as a deep trough of Low pressure begins to dig rapidly from the Gulf of Alaska down the west coast of British Columbia with ample moist cold air. Montana will be mild that day but a strong cold front should push into NW Montana by late Thursday afternoon and through the rest of the state into Friday morning of next week.

A deep trough will develop across the northern and central Rockies by Saturday Nov. 10 pulling much colder air from Canada down into Montana and by Sunday morning Nov. 11th single digit lows are possible with highs Sunday in the teens and 20’s.

The biggest variable is to predict how much snow could fall from this system. Because it is so far out in time I will not be able to determine specific amounts but rather generalize for now. Early next week I should be able to start to fine tune the forecast snow probabilities. The latest GFS surface 6 hour precipitation outlook shows at least widespread light snow is possible throughout the pacific NW into Idaho and Montana and down into Utah and Colorado, starting in British Columbia, Canada Thursday Nov. 8th and reaching Colorado by Saturday Nov. 10th.

This pattern change does appear to be a short lived event from Nov. 8th through Nov. 11th. Models show a westerly flow beginning to re-build with warming temperatures by Monday Nov. 12th but it will be a slow transition and temperatures could remain below normal for the first half of the second week in November. I will continue to monitor the weather models and I’ll have updates on this change on line and on KBZK/KXLF.

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