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Cold and snow expected late next week November 2, 2012

Posted by mikeheard in Uncategorized.
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Look for a significant change in the weather pattern 7 days froImagem now, late next week.

The attached graphic is an HPC product showing surface conditions and placements of fronts, ridges and troughs. From the graphic you can see a cold front in southern Montana and a High pressure ridge over western Canada. This is a cold air mass digging southward. A strong pressure gradient has also developed and gusty winds could be possible along with the colder air.

There is a large Low pressure system over the pacific NW and another system over Northern Utah. How much moisture does each of these storms hold will determine how much snow we could see late next week and weekend.

This pattern appears to be a good one for an overrunning event, colder air at the surface and warm moist air pushed up and over the colder air creates atmospheric lifting and thus destabilizes the atmosphere and periods of heavy snow could develop especially over the mountains.

GFS weather forecast model shows the stronger Low pressure system migrating from the pacific NW Thursday down into Wyoming Friday and lifting up into the Dakota’s by Saturday. There should be plenty of wrap around moisture spinning around this Low across the Southern half of Montana.

There is a high confidence in cold air advection into Montana late next week, confidence is low right now on timing and intensity of precipitation. I will continue to monitor the models over the next several days and update the forecast this weekend and next week. For now plan on a wintry weather pattern change late next week and next weekend.

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