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Election Day forecast, Republicans pray for rain. November 3, 2012

Posted by mikeheard in Uncategorized.

Election day forecast acrossImage the country on Tuesday looks fairly quiet with the exception of a storm system in the pacific NW and in the SE U.S. So there is no reason for folks to stay home and voter turnout should be high.

The HPC National surface map shows a strong system entering the pacific NW and an organized storm system over the SE U.S. which will turn into an impressive Nor’easter after the election across the same states that were impacted by Hurricane Sandy. Late in the week flooding rains and strong winds with more inland heavy snow will impact the NE U.S.

Temperatures across the country on Tuesday will be fairly mild across the northern states with 50’s and 60’s in the pacific NW, cooler 30’s to mid 40’s over the Great Lakes and NE states and hot 80’s and 90’s in the SW states. Probability of precipitation (POP) values are very low across most of the country with the exceptions of the Seattle area and in the Atlanta area.

Social scientists suggest that good weather is helpful to Democratic candidates and Republicans pray for rain. A well-known study by Gomez in 2005 entitled The Republican Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections is based on an impressive array of polling and meteorological data and statistical analysis. The studies states “we have shown that bad weather may affect electoral outcomes by significantly decreasing Democratic presidential vote share, to benefit of Republicans”.

The paper examines the effect of weather on voter turnout in fourteen U.S. presidential elections. Using GIS interpolations, the paper employ meteorological data drawn from over 22,000 U.S. weather stations to provide election day estimates of rain and snow for each U.S. county. The paper finds that, when compared to normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate of just less than one percent per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases turnout by almost .5 percent. Poor weather is shown to benefit the Republican Party’s vote share. The weather may have contributed to two Electoral College outcomes, the 1960 election was a dry election, helping John F. Kennedy get enough Democrats to the polls to eke out a win. The 2000 presidential election was unusually wet, especially in parts of Florida. If the weather pattern was dry, Gore would have won. Click on the link above for the full pdf report.

Voter turnout has been impacted the NE U.S. in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, however, voter suppression in the destruction area of Sandy will not change the electoral college totals as the damage is in blue states, but will increase chances Obama will win the electoral vote but the not the popular vote.

The weather effects everything in our lives including presidential elections.



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