Mike Heard's Blog

January 2011 Montana Precipitation Trends January 25, 2011

Late January precipitation trends look varied across Montana with some of us well above average on month to date precipitation and others well below normal. It’s been an interesting month for moisture in regard to type and intensity as well, rain, snow, freezing rain.
Here is the data in terms of percent of average. Any values below 100% are below normal and any values above 100% are above normal.

Dry Areas:
0-25% of average
Gallatin Field – Belgrade 23%
Dillon 17%
Helena 24%
Cut Bank 0%

25-50%
Billings 32%

50-100%
Bozeman MSU 56%
Wisdom 54%
Livingston 82%
Miles City 95%
Great Falls 46%
Butte 52%
Lewistown 54%

Wet Areas:
100-200%
Kalispell 187%
Seeley Lake 192%
West Glacier 135%
Big Sky 128%
Ennis 121%
Havre 125%

Very Wet Areas:
200+%
Missoula 211%
Anaconda 200%
Glasgow 557%
Glendive 244%

A general overview shows that SW, Central and SE Montana will end up on the drier than normal side for January precipitation with a few exceptions. Western and Northern Montana will end up with well above normal precipitation. Why?
The month was very active with regard to strong pacific storms rolling in from the pacific NW. This type of weather pattern is prone to upslope and downslope factors. Mountain ranges running North to South and a perpendicular flow from the west creates strong lifting on the windward side (west) of the various mountain ranges from the pacific NW, inland NW through to the continental divide. Just the opposite occurs on the Lee side (east) of the various ranges, downsloping dries the air and produces very windy conditions at times.
For SW Montana our variety of mountain ranges shielded many of the valleys with downsloping and thus drier conditions than normal for the month of January.
Another interesting factor with this weather pattern during the month was the tug of war between the numerous warm moist pacific storms and the Arctic air over Canada and Northern U.S. Temperature contrasts between Western Montana and Central to Eastern Montana varied more than 50 degrees at times with highs in the 40’s around Missoula, Butte, Bozeman vs. single digits below zero highs on the highline and NE counties. Temperatures statewide did moderate by the end of the month.
The varied temperatures produced varied precipitation. Moderate to heavy rain occurred across Western and NW Montana and did mix with a little snow at times which in turn produced some minor flooding at times. The colder than normal temperatures kept the precipitation in the form of snow across central and eastern and northern Montana. Blowing and drifting was a major problem across NE Montana during the month and on the I-90 corridor between Livingston and Big Timber.
Snowpack

Despite the varied precipitation trends across Montana, statewide snowpack continues to run at or slightly above normal to above normal. In general statewide snowpack percent of average values for water content is running 105% to 130%.

Interesting side note on snowpack is the pacific NW snowpack data is running below normal! The reason is that the numerous pacific storms slamming the pacific NW have produced mostly heavy rain and not much snow.

ICE Jams

Another noteworthy weather event was the on again off again ice jams in SW Montana. As temperatures started out well below zero to begin the month all area rivers and streams iced up considerably and as temperatures moderated mid month that ice broke up and produced ice jams and flooding on the Gallatin River, Madison River and Beaverhead river.

NOAA: 2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record January 12, 2011

January 12, 2011

According to NOAA scientists, 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year of the global surface temperature record, beginning in 1880. This was the 34th consecutive year with global temperatures above the 20th century average. For the contiguous United States alone, the 2010 average annual temperature was above normal, resulting in the 23rd warmest year on record.

This preliminary analysis is prepared by scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., and is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions.

2010 Global Climate Highlights:

• 

  Global surface temperature anomalies for 2010.
  High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)

  Combined global land and ocean annual surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record at 1.12 F (0.62 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence (to the 95 percent level) associated with the combined surface temperature is +/- 0.13 F (+/- 0.07 C).*

• The global land surface temperatures for 2010 were tied for the second warmest on record at 1.73 F (0.96 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence associated with the land surface temperature is +/- 0.20 F (+/- 0.11 C).
• Global ocean surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.88 F (0.49 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence associated with the ocean surface temperature is +/- 0.11 F (+/- 0.06 C).
• In 2010 there was a dramatic shift in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences global temperature and precipitation patterns — when a moderate-to-strong El Niño transitioned to La Niña conditions by July. At the end of November, La Niña was moderate-to-strong.
• According to the Global Historical Climatology Network, 2010 was the wettest year on record, in terms of global average precipitation. As with any year, precipitation patterns were highly variable from region to region.
• The 2010 Pacific hurricane season had seven named storms and three hurricanes, the fewest on record since the mid-1960s when scientists started using satellite observations. By contrast, the Atlantic season was extremely active, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The year tied for third- and second-most storms and hurricanes on record, respectively.
• The Arctic sea ice extent had a record long growing season, with the annual maximum occurring at the latest date, March 31, since records began in 1979. Despite the shorter-than-normal melting season, the Arctic still reached its third smallest annual sea ice minimum on record behind 2007 and 2008. The Antarctic sea ice extent reached its eighth smallest annual maximum extent in March, while in September, the Antarctic sea ice rapidly expanded to its third largest extent on record.
• A negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) in January and February helped usher in very cold Arctic air to much of the Northern Hemisphere. Record cold and major snowstorms with heavy accumulations occurred across much of eastern North America, Europe and Asia. The February AO index reached -4.266, the largest negative anomaly since records began in 1950.
• From mid-June to mid-August, an unusually strong jet stream shifted northward of western Russia while plunging southward into Pakistan. The jet stream remained locked in place for weeks, bringing an unprecedented two-month heat wave to Russia and contributing to devastating floods in Pakistan at the end of July.

U.S. Climate Highlights:

• 

  2010 average annual temperature ranks by state.
  High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)

  In the contiguous United States, 2010 was the 14th consecutive year with an annual temperature above the long-term average. Since 1895, the temperature across the nation has increased at an average rate of approximately 0.12 F per decade.

• Precipitation across the contiguous United States in 2010 was 1.02 inches (2.59 cm) above the long-term average. Like temperature, precipitation patterns are influenced by climate processes such as ENSO. A persistent storm track brought prolific summer rain to the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and many surrounding states had much above-normal precipitation. Since the start of records in the U.S. in 1895, precipitation across the United States is increasing at an average rate of approximately 0.18 inches per decade.
• The year began with extremely cold winter temperatures and snowfall amounts that broke monthly and seasonal records at many U.S. locations. Seasonal snowfall records fell in several cities, including Washington; Baltimore, Md., Philadelphia; Wilmington, Del.; and Atlantic City, N.J. Several NOAA studies established that this winter pattern was made more likely by the combined states of El Niño and the Arctic Oscillation.
• Twelve states, mainly in the Southeast, but extending northward into New England, experienced a record warm June-August. Several cities broke summer temperature records including New York (Central Park); Philadelphia; Trenton, N.J.; and Wilmington, Del.
• Preliminary totals indicate there were 1,302 U.S. tornadoes during 2010. The year will rank among the 10 busiest for tornadoes since records began in 1950. An active storm pattern across the Northern Plains during the summer contributed to a state-record 104 confirmed tornadoes in Minnesota in 2010, making Minnesota the national tornado leader for the first time.
• During 2010, substantial precipitation fell in many drought-stricken regions. The U.S. footprint of drought reached its smallest extent during July when less than eight percent of the country was experiencing drought conditions. The increased precipitation and eradication of drought limited the acres burned and number of wildfires during 2010. Hawaii had near-record dryness occurring in some areas for most of the year.

Scientists, researchers and leaders in government and industry use NOAA’s monthly reports to help track trends and other changes in the world’s climate. This climate service has a wide range of practical uses, from helping farmers know what and when to plant, to guiding resource managers‘ critical decisions about water, energy and other vital assets.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook.

* New information in this report: Based on requests from our users, NOAA is now making it easier to find information in its global State of the Climate report about ranges of uncertainty (“range”) associated with its global temperature calculations. NCDC previously displayed this information in certain graphics associated with the report, but it will now publish these ranges in the form of “plus or minus” values associated with each monthly temperature calculation. These values are calculated using techniques published in peer-reviewed scientific literature. More information.

Every state, except one, has snow on the ground 1-11-2011 January 11, 2011

Active Weather Pattern Starting Wednesday January 8, 2011

The finer details are still being worked on but the overall weather forecast is still calling for an over-running pattern beginning Wednesday.

Warm moist pacific air will roll in from the West and a lingering Arctic airmass at the surface is an excellent pattern for heavy snow. As we get closer to the event we will have a better handle on timing and snow accumulations but for now plan on a good winter storm to hit SW Montana beginning Wednesday.

Poll finds local television is leading source for weather info January 5, 2011

The article below is from Radio & Television Business Report or rbr.com or tvbr.com

I hope this trend continues!

________________________________________________________

They may have cable channels out there devoted to nothing but weather reports, but a poll from Rasmussen recently found that the majority of Americans still rely on their local television station when they want to know how the weather may affect their plans.

As it turns out, cable didn’t even come in second.

Here is how the results shook out from Rasmussen’s survey, which asked respondents to identity their primary source of weather information:

* 54%: local television

* 20%: internet

* 19%: cable television

* 5%: radio

* 2%: newspaper

According to Rasmussen, 51% of respondents believe the media makes the weather sound worse than it really is, compared to 37% who think the media plays it straight and 12% who don’t know or have no opinion.

RBR-TVBR observation: We have to admit that we were surprised that cable didn’t get a stronger response in this survey, which clearly shows that local television stations recognize this as a key bread-and-butter item on their local reporting menu.

But it was no surprise at all to see that newspapers are a non-factor in this competition. We have occasionally looked at USA Today-style weather maps because, well, they’re kind of fun to look at. Full disclosure – we’ll sometimes just look at maps, for no particular reason beyond simple curiosity, whether they’re weather maps or not.

But actually go to a newspaper for weather info? In our own case, the one and only reason we have ever done that is to get the scant information provided on out-of-market weather. What’s happening in my brother’s town in California? What’s going on in the market we’ll be traveling to next week? That sort of thing. But using a newspaper as a primary source of current local weather information? It’s amazing Rasmussen even found 2% that admitted to it.

As for the media exaggerating the negative side of the weather, we believe that it does, but that there is method to this madness. It is better to have predicted problems and have them not happen, than to watch your area get blasted by a storm system of one kind or another that wasn’t mentioned at all. Media outlets have no choice but to mention all possibilities.

ICE Jams and Flooding Impacting SW Montana January 4, 2011

The continued colder than normal temperatures along with frequent Arctic intrusions is causing area rivers to ice up and produce ice jams that in turn back up the flow of water and produce flooding.

The Gallatin river at Logan is one example and now the Beaverhead river at Twin Bridges is another.

Anyone living in these areas need to monitor river levels closely. We encourage you to also take pictures and video and send them to us via email anytime to: newstips@kxlf.com or z7tips@kbzk.com or photo@kbzk.com or photo@kxlf.com.
Here is an official statement on the flooding for both rivers as of 10am Tuesday Jan. 4th, 2011:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN SOUTHWEST
MONTANA…

GALLATIN RIVER NEAR LOGAN

.A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES HAS RESULTED IN AN ICE JAM
ON THE GALLATIN RIVER NEAR LOGAN. WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED BUT ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. AT THIS TIME NO ROADS OR
STRUCTURES ARE THREATENED BUT ICE JAMS ARE UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN
RISES IN RIVER LEVELS COULD OCCUR.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR BEAVERHEAD RIVER AT TWIN BRIDGES…
MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA

* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

* AT 433 AM MST MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY SERVICES IN MADISON
COUNTY REPORTED AN ICE JAM ON THE BEAVERHEAD RIVER CAUSING FLOODING
IN TWIN BRIDGES. THE BEAVERHEAD RIVER IN TWIN BRIDGES HAS RISEN SIX
FEET IN THE PAST SIX HOURS.

JESSEN PARK IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING AND SEVERAL PRIVATE RESIDENCES
ARE BEING AFFECTED.

THE FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE RIVER FALLS BACK
INTO ITS BANK. BECAUSE ICE JAMMING IS UNPREDICTABLE…THE RIVER WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE IN WATER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.

Montana Ice Jam Awareness Day is January 13th, 2011.

Here is a link to the National Weather Service Ice Jam site: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/tfx/icejam/

2010 in review January 2, 2011

The stats helper monkeys at WordPress.com mulled over how this blog did in 2010, and here’s a high level summary of its overall blog health:

The Blog-Health-o-Meter™ reads Wow.

Crunchy numbers

The average container ship can carry about 4,500 containers. This blog was viewed about 15,000 times in 2010. If each view were a shipping container, your blog would have filled about 3 fully loaded ships.

In 2010, there were 173 new posts, growing the total archive of this blog to 192 posts. There were 774 pictures uploaded, taking up a total of 133mb. That’s about 2 pictures per day.

The busiest day of the year was June 20th with 456 views. The most popular post that day was Fathers Day Tornado Hits Billings .

Where did they come from?

The top referring sites in 2010 were kbzk.com, kxlf.com, ow.ly, facebook.com, and twitter.com.

Some visitors came searching, mostly for mike heard, mike heard weather, mike heard blog, tornadoes, and photos of flooding at rainbow ranch road, big sky, montana.

Attractions in 2010

These are the posts and pages that got the most views in 2010.

Fathers Day Tornado Hits Billings June 2010
1 comment

About December 2009
1 comment

2009 Global Temperatures Well Above Average December 2009

March Precipitation and Temperature Trends April 2010

A NE MT Near Death Flash Flood Experience March 2010