Mike Heard's Blog

Heavy mountain snow targeting a few SW Montana mountain ranges this weekend November 30, 2012

University of Washington MRF-GFS 72 hours snow accumulation forecast ending Dec. 3^rd is predicting an impressive but localized heavy snow event in SW Montana. Monida Pass over the West Yellowstone down through western Wyoming could 1’ to 3’ of mountain snow this weekend.

Winter Storm Warnings are up for southern Beaverhead, Southern Madison and Southern Gallatin counties through early Monday morning. Snowfall estimates of 10”-20” and strong winds over 40mph will produce hazardous travel conditions for Monida Pass, Targhee pass and Raynolds pass.

Another area of concern is Wisdom to Georgetown Lake and the Pintlar Wilderness areas. Estimated snow accumulations in this region in the 12” range. The Rocky mountain front is also expecting a heavy dumping of snow as well as central Idaho and the Cascade mountains in Washington and Oregon.

The other image in this post is of TPW (total precipitable water) and shows an AR or atmospheric river setting up pumping subtropical moisture into Northern California. Several AR’s in November have been responsible for massive rainfall reports along the coast in Washington, Oregon and Northern California with a few areas in NW Oregon reporting over 75” of rain in November alone.

Impressive snow blankets the Northern Rockies in the wake of a powerful winter storm November 12, 2012

Election Day forecast, Republicans pray for rain. November 3, 2012

Election day forecast across the country on Tuesday looks fairly quiet with the exception of a storm system in the pacific NW and in the SE U.S. So there is no reason for folks to stay home and voter turnout should be high.

The HPC National surface map shows a strong system entering the pacific NW and an organized storm system over the SE U.S. which will turn into an impressive Nor’easter after the election across the same states that were impacted by Hurricane Sandy. Late in the week flooding rains and strong winds with more inland heavy snow will impact the NE U.S.

Temperatures across the country on Tuesday will be fairly mild across the northern states with 50’s and 60’s in the pacific NW, cooler 30’s to mid 40’s over the Great Lakes and NE states and hot 80’s and 90’s in the SW states. Probability of precipitation (POP) values are very low across most of the country with the exceptions of the Seattle area and in the Atlanta area.

Social scientists suggest that good weather is helpful to Democratic candidates and Republicans pray for rain. A well-known study by Gomez in 2005 entitled The Republican Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections is based on an impressive array of polling and meteorological data and statistical analysis. The studies states “we have shown that bad weather may affect electoral outcomes by significantly decreasing Democratic presidential vote share, to benefit of Republicans”.

The paper examines the effect of weather on voter turnout in fourteen U.S. presidential elections. Using GIS interpolations, the paper employ meteorological data drawn from over 22,000 U.S. weather stations to provide election day estimates of rain and snow for each U.S. county. The paper finds that, when compared to normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate of just less than one percent per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases turnout by almost .5 percent. Poor weather is shown to benefit the Republican Party’s vote share. The weather may have contributed to two Electoral College outcomes, the 1960 election was a dry election, helping John F. Kennedy get enough Democrats to the polls to eke out a win. The 2000 presidential election was unusually wet, especially in parts of Florida. If the weather pattern was dry, Gore would have won. Click on the link above for the full pdf report.

Voter turnout has been impacted the NE U.S. in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, however, voter suppression in the destruction area of Sandy will not change the electoral college totals as the damage is in blue states, but will increase chances Obama will win the electoral vote but the not the popular vote.

The weather effects everything in our lives including presidential elections.

Cold and snow expected late next week November 2, 2012

Look for a significant change in the weather pattern 7 days from now, late next week.

The attached graphic is an HPC product showing surface conditions and placements of fronts, ridges and troughs. From the graphic you can see a cold front in southern Montana and a High pressure ridge over western Canada. This is a cold air mass digging southward. A strong pressure gradient has also developed and gusty winds could be possible along with the colder air.

There is a large Low pressure system over the pacific NW and another system over Northern Utah. How much moisture does each of these storms hold will determine how much snow we could see late next week and weekend.

This pattern appears to be a good one for an overrunning event, colder air at the surface and warm moist air pushed up and over the colder air creates atmospheric lifting and thus destabilizes the atmosphere and periods of heavy snow could develop especially over the mountains.

GFS weather forecast model shows the stronger Low pressure system migrating from the pacific NW Thursday down into Wyoming Friday and lifting up into the Dakota’s by Saturday. There should be plenty of wrap around moisture spinning around this Low across the Southern half of Montana.

There is a high confidence in cold air advection into Montana late next week, confidence is low right now on timing and intensity of precipitation. I will continue to monitor the models over the next several days and update the forecast this weekend and next week. For now plan on a wintry weather pattern change late next week and next weekend.

Colder pattern change arrives late next week November 1, 2012

GFS forecast modeling for late next week and next weekend is consistently showing a change in the weather pattern to colder and wet.

A persistent westerly flow this weekend into the first half of next week will keep temperatures fairly mild with 50’s and 60’s for highs and lows in the 20’s and 30’s. A few shortwaves will push through with brief periods of showers and mountain flurries but overall very weak in nature.

The change begins around Thursday Nov. 8^th as a deep trough of Low pressure begins to dig rapidly from the Gulf of Alaska down the west coast of British Columbia with ample moist cold air. Montana will be mild that day but a strong cold front should push into NW Montana by late Thursday afternoon and through the rest of the state into Friday morning of next week.

A deep trough will develop across the northern and central Rockies by Saturday Nov. 10 pulling much colder air from Canada down into Montana and by Sunday morning Nov. 11^th single digit lows are possible with highs Sunday in the teens and 20’s.

The biggest variable is to predict how much snow could fall from this system. Because it is so far out in time I will not be able to determine specific amounts but rather generalize for now. Early next week I should be able to start to fine tune the forecast snow probabilities. The latest GFS surface 6 hour precipitation outlook shows at least widespread light snow is possible throughout the pacific NW into Idaho and Montana and down into Utah and Colorado, starting in British Columbia, Canada Thursday Nov. 8^th and reaching Colorado by Saturday Nov. 10^th.

This pattern change does appear to be a short lived event from Nov. 8^th through Nov. 11^th. Models show a westerly flow beginning to re-build with warming temperatures by Monday Nov. 12^th but it will be a slow transition and temperatures could remain below normal for the first half of the second week in November. I will continue to monitor the weather models and I’ll have updates on this change on line and on KBZK/KXLF.

Atmospheric River dumping heavy rain into the Pacific NW October 31, 2012

A plume of subtropical moisture, aka “AR” atmospheric river, is setting up off the west coast today and targeting the pacific NW. The attached image shows the amount of water vapor in a column of air with the white and blue colors indicating the highest values.

This atmospheric river will likely dump several inches of rain between Portland, OR and up through the Pugent Sound in Washington State. Flood watches and advisories have been issued along the pacific NW coastal areas over the next 48 hours. This rich moisture will weaken considerably as it migrates into the inland NW and into NW Montana.

Astoria, OR picked up 2.49” of rain Tuesday October 30^th and month to date precipitation is soaring up to almost 12” for October and for 2012 an impressive 61.55” of rainfall, which is 15.61” above normal.

Portland, OR precipitation for October is up to almost 6”, Seattle is up to 6.14”, Spokane, WA is at 1.50” and Kalispell, MT is up to 2.65”, Missoula 1.82” and Butte with only .36”.

Atmospheric Rivers (AR) are relatively narrow regions in the atmosphere that are responsible for most of the horizontal transport of water vapor outside of the tropics. On average, 30%-50% of annual precipitation in the west coast states occurs in just a few AR events, thus contributing to water supply. The strongest ARs can create major flooding when they make landfall and stall over an area.

A well known example of a type of strong AR that can hit the U.S. west coast is the “Pineapple Express”, due to their apparent ability to bring moisture from the tropics near Hawaii to the U.S. west coast. Average ARs are 400-600 km wide.

You can track atmospheric rivers on weather satellites using the Total Precipitable Water imagery at this link: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global/main.html

Hurricane Sandy October 26, 2012

Hurricane Sandy storm path is highly unusual for late October. The National Hurricane Center is projecting the hurricane to swing away from Florida and the SE coast and curve westward back toward the east coast of the United States sometime Monday evening or Tuesday morning.

Typically hurricanes will curve to the right in the northern hemisphere the farther they travel northward due to the Coriolis force (spinning of the earth). However, the atmosphere in the eastern U.S. and in the Atlantic ocean is experiencing a traffic jam at the moment.A large high pressure ridge off the eastern Canadian coast line (air flow around a ridge is clockwise) and a cut off Low (air flow around a Low is counter-clockwise) near the east coast of the U.S. is pushing Hurricane Sandy to the west. Another factor is  the polar jet stream, a digging trough into the Great Lakes that will eventually move eastward in a few days and will help pull the hurricane into the trough or to the west,  these are the primary reason for Hurricane Sandy’s projected storm path.

The National Weather Service office in Great Falls Montana is one of 2 sites that launch weather balloons every 12 hours. These balloons rise up through the atmosphere recording and transmitting data such as temperature, humidity, wind speed etc as it climbs and drifts with the steering winds aloft. This data is then ingested into the various weather computer forecast models which in turn helps us predict the weather. Due to this unusual storm path of Hurricane Sandy the Great Falls NWS is launching weather balloons every 6 hours through the weekend because we are well up stream of this event and forecasters want as much data as they can get to predict how the jet stream will develop and other atmospheric weather conditions before Sandy’s makes landfall on the east coast. Weather conditions over Montana today will eventually move eastward or downstream into the eastern U.S. by this weekend so it is important to gather as much data as possible so the National Hurricane Center meteorologist can help save lives and property before the storms arrival.

Forecast models right now are predicting a heavy rainfall event along the east coast from North Carolina on up to New Jersey and inland as far west as Ohio and Pennsylvania. QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts) are estimating 6” to 12”+ of rainfall in these areas.

It will be interesting to watch this hurricane out in the Atlantic Ocean and see how it strengthens or weakens over the next 2 to 3 days and where it will make landfall. This could be a devastating hurricane by Tuesday.

2011 Percent of Normal Precipitation February 26, 2012

January 2012 the fourth warmest for the contiguous United States February 23, 2012

(Credit: NOAA)

During January, warmer-than-average conditions enveloped most of the contiguous United States, with widespread below-average precipitation. The overall weather pattern for the month was reflected in the lack of snow for much of the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. This scenario was in stark contrast to Alaska where several towns had their coldest January on record.

This monthly analysis from NOAA is part of the suite of climate services we provide government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions.

The average contiguous U.S. temperature in January was 36.3 degrees F, 5.5 degrees F above the 1901-2000 long-term average — the fourth warmest January on record, and the warmest since 2006. Precipitation, averaged across the nation, was 1.85 inches. This was 0.37 inch below the long-term average, with variability between regions.

U.S. Climate Highlights – January 

• Warmer-than-average temperatures were widespread across the contiguous United States during January. Nine states – Arizona, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Wyoming – had January temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. Florida and Washington were the only states with temperatures near average, and no state was cooler than average.
• Many locations across the Northern Plains exceeded all-time warm January maximum temperatures records during the month, including Minot, North Dakota, which reached 61 degrees F on January 5th. This surpassed the previous record of 59.0 degrees F for the city, set on January 28th, 1906.
• In contrast to the contiguous United States being much warmer than average, several towns across Alaska had their coldest average January temperatures on record — Nome (-16.6 degrees F), Bethel (-17.3 degrees F) McGrath (-28.5 degrees F), and Bettles (-35.6 degrees F).
• Precipitation totals were mixed across the United States during January. The Southern Plains and the Great Lakes were wetter than average for the month, with Texas having above-average precipitation for the second month in a row. Texas had not experienced two consecutive months with above-average precipitation since January-February 2010.
• Below-average precipitation was observed for the Central Plains, where Kansas had its third driest January, and Nebraska its eighth. The Southeast was also drier than average, where Florida had its eighth driest January on record. Many locations along Florida’s Atlantic coast, which usually averages over 2.5 inches of precipitation during January, had little to no precipitation during the month.
• Cities across the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast had below-average snow fall during the month – a result of warmer and drier than average conditions. According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average snow extent during January was 1.0 million square miles, which was 329,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average. This marks the 3rd smallest January snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record.

U.S. Climate Highlights – Winter to Date (December 2011-January 2012)

• The first two months of the winter season, December and January, have been much warmer than average for the contiguous United States. The two-month period was the fourth warmest on record with an average temperature 3.8 degrees F above average. Much of the warmth was anchored across the northern and eastern United States. Minnesota was record warm for the period, with an average temperature 10.1 degrees F above average. A total of twenty-two states from Montana to Maine had December-January temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. 
• Despite a large winter storm which impacted the western U.S. during January, much of the region was drier than average. California had its fourth driest December-January period, and Montana had its sixth. Wetter-than-average conditions were observed in a string of states from New Mexico to New York, with Texas having its eleventh wettest two-month period.

U.S. Climate Highlights – Last 12 months (February 2011-January 2012)

• The 12-month period, ending in January, was the sixth warmest such period for the contiguous United States, with warmer-than-average temperatures dominating the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Seven states – Delaware, New Jersey, North Carolina, Maryland, Rhode Island, Texas, and Virginia – were record warm for the period, while an additional 18 states had 12-month temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. Oregon and Washington were the only states with below-average temperatures during the period.
• The nationally-averaged precipitation total for the 12-month period was near average, masking regional extremes. The Ohio Valley and Northeast were record wet for the period, with seven states within those regions also being record wet. Dry conditions were present along the southern tier of the nation from New Mexico to South Carolina.

Read more about the full January U.S. Climate Update Report at:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/1

NOAA activates GOES-15 satellite; deactivates GOES-11 after nearly 12 years in orbit December 6, 2011

December 6, 2011

For 12 years, GOES-11, one of NOAA’s geostationary satellites, tracked weather and severe storms that impacted the U.S. West Coast, Hawaii and the Pacific region. Today, NOAA began the process to deactivate the satellite, which is approaching the end of its useful life, and replace it with a new, more advanced spacecraft.

The new geostationary satellite, GOES-15, has taken the place of GOES-11 and now becomes NOAA’s GOES West spacecraft in a fixed orbit over the Pacific Ocean, midway between Hawaii and the West Coast and 22,300 miles above the equator. GOES-15 provides more data, with better resolution and image stability than GOES-11. GOES-15 joins NOAA’s other operational geostationary satellite, GOES-13, which serves as the GOES East spacecraft. The GOES are not only used for weather applications, but also track space weather, oceanographic changes, forest fires and other hazards and provide scientific data collection and information for search and rescue operations.

Aware that GOES-11 was nearing the end of its fuel supply, NOAA personnel spent the past several months planning for the end of its mission. Deactivation of GOES-11 began today when data observations were shifted to GOES-15. On December 15, NOAA will fire the spacecraft’s booster, moving GOES-11 approximately 185 miles (300 km) above its current geostationary orbit, where it will be officially decommissioned.

“With its steady eye on dangerous weather conditions, GOES-11 served America well, providing the critical images and atmospheric measurements NOAA meteorologists needed to produce life-saving forecasts,” said Mary Kicza, assistant administrator for NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service.

Launched May 3, 2000, GOES-11 was originally planned for a five-year mission, but lasted nearly seven years longer. “GOES-11’s extended service is testimony to the great work of Space Systems/Loral, NASA and the team of NOAA staff and contractors who acquired and managed the spacecraft ,” Kicza added.

In addition to GOES-15 and GOES-13, NOAA has two other geostationary satellites in orbit – GOES-12, which provides data for South America, and GOES-14, which is in a storage orbit as a ready backup or replacement.

NOAA is planning the next generation of geostationary satellites, called GOES-R, with the first set to launch in 2015. GOES-R is expected to more than double the clarity of today’s GOES imagery and provide more atmospheric observations than current capabilities with more frequent images. In addition, data from GOES-R instruments will be used to create many different products NOAA meteorologists and others will use to monitor the atmosphere, land, ocean and the sun.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.